B.J. Bethel

A view of the world from Ohio

Tag Archives: 2016 election

QUICK DEBATE FACT CHECK: Clinton vs. Trump III – because all other fact checks stink

I can’t remember everything from last night’s debate, as I was working simultaneously and only caught bits of it on DVR afterward. But I did my best.

Presidential Debate No. 3 was not without its skirmishes, interruptions, ignorance of said Answer timer; but Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace was the best moderator of the three. Debate Two, which came immediately after the Trump “Access Hollywood” tape was reported by the Washington Post, was a mess. Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz didn’t control the debate as well as Wallace, though Wallace had the advantage of seeing how bad it could get from the previous debate. Fox News has a very strong lineup of serious reporters, and with Roger Ailes now out, hopefully we get more ‘news’ and less ‘rhetoric’ out of Fox, conservative or otherwise.

DONALD TRUMP

  • Trump is a stronger candidate on issues than both Gary Johnson and Bernie Sanders. Sanders won’t even give a foreign policy question an answer without “having a sheet of paper in front of him,” as he famously told the New York Daily News, and in that same interview couldn’t say how he would he implement his core policy issue of reining in banks. Trump had answers, and when he’s stuck to trade, offshoring, jobs and NAFTA he’s been strong and Clinton hadn’t made a dent on him when he hasn’t.
  • Clinton made the definitive case for her presidency during her retort to Trump on her “experience.” It was a ‘YouTube’ moment Trump never recovered from.
  • The issues with Trump (outside of the sexual comments and assault allegations, which if the later are true would make him unfit), stem mostly from Stephen Bannon sitting on his left shoulder and whispering in his ear. The major controversies of his campaign are all Breitbart-esque Alinksy-style politics on core issues Breitbart.com considers the most important – that isn’t a coincidence. That’s not to left Trump off the hook, his behavior has been atrocious.
  • Trump’s declaration that the Mosul offensive was going bad was completely off base. The assault was only in his fourth day. Key Iraqi and Kurdish officials have said for months, even as the Iraqi Army and the Pershmerga was chasing IS out of cities in hours, the Mosul offensive could take six months or longer. As of the debate started, the offensive was only in its fourth day. Reports from BBC, from Iraqi president Fuad Masum and the Kurdish government said they’ve made better headway than they expected at this point. Iraqi Special Forces (U.S. trained) hadn’t joined the fight until today.
  • Donald’s analysis on Aleppo was wrong. As was the situation being anarchy and beyond a ceasefire – because Syrian and Russian forces agreed on a ceasefire this morning.
  • Trump’s assertion he “didn’t know” if he would accept the results of the election was pure Breitbart and purely stupid.. The dangerous things Trump and Bannon do for electoral advantage are no different than what Marxists did in countries in Eastern Europe and Russia.
  • His Putin remarks and remarks on Wikileaks were ridiculous. His former campaign manager had direct ties to Putin proxies in Eastern Europe, even the exiled former president of Ukraine. The Russians have hacked the DNC and are openly trying to intervene in the election, with some going as far to say electing Clinton would re-start the Cold War.

HILLARY CLINTON

  • Hillary’s comments on open borders and her assertion it was about “energy production” was not as closed as she maintained. Energy was a major part of her speech in Brazil, looking back at quotes. She was speaking of energy in the next sentence after the comment at the speech, but she never said explicitly whether she would be for a tightening of trade in the Western Hemisphere or not, and her speech in Brazil was much broader than she said. She’s positioned herself against TPP, but her answer gave no insight into how she would approach trade in the Americas. Given Trump’s key issue involves NAFTA, the silence was deafening.
  • Clinton gave no response to the Project Veritas/James O’Keefe videos when prompted. There’s little doubt the violence at the Chicago rally was inspired by Sanders supporters. Trump has also used ‘violence’ at his rallies as part of his campaign to enforce his image as a law and order candidate. But the videos show her campaign workers and that at least deemed a response from her. It was politically expedient to say nothing, but she didn’t soothe any independents who may have had questions about whether the party was playing dirty.

Crime may be at historical lows, but Trump’s law and order appeal is based on reality for rural areas

Tragedy in West Virginia. Twenty-seven overdoses in four hours –  one death. The overdoses occurred in the same area, within a couple miles of each other.

All of the overdoses happened within a mile and a half radius, which leads officials to believe they are from the same batch of heroin. The overdose victims ranged from 20 years old to 50, according to Merry.

This story is familiar in Dayton and its exurbs and the rural areas surrounding it. The drug was likely bought by all 27 victims from the same dealer, and laced with fentanyl, a narcotic more powerful than heroin. Fentanyl is what killed musician and star Prince. Where I work, a metro newspaper and major local news affiliate, this is news we report every weekend.

When dealers are running low on heroin (which is in epidemical demand), they cut heroin with fentanyl, and dealers seldom let customers know the product has been cut and could be fatal. Overdoses occur regularly, many causing death. Police departments, such as the Dayton Police Department in Ohio, have officers carrying NARCAN, a drug used to revive and save heroin ODs. This is standard equipment for officers, like a flashlight, handcuffs or a sidearm.

This is recent news to most, but this surge is far from a recent happening. Over a decade ago, law enforcement and hospitals in rural areas began seeing a switch from meth to heroin. Meth imported from Mexico was cheaper than meth produced by local dealers. At the same time new legislation made it more difficult to acquire opioids and other prescription pain medication. Heroin acts in the bloodstream like morphine. For those addicted to pain medication (many through bad practice by their own doctors), it was a natural switch that politicians and law enforcement didn’t anticipate. Now the United States is in the midst of the worst drug epidemic in at least 20 years, maybe ever.

Mike Burkholder of The Evening Leader and Wapakoneta Daily News wrote extensively about this problem nine years ago, but like many small town reports, it fell on deaf ears to others outside rural areas. It’s news to Washington DC, but almost everything from rural America is.

When Donald Trump speaks of law and order, he isn’t only speaking about immigration, inner city violence, he’s hitting a chord with rural working class and poor whites who have watched crime skyrocket due to the exploding epidemic in small towns. One exburb of Dayton had 80 heroin ODs through three months. They’ve occurred locally in Walmart and McDonalds bathrooms, in a Walgreens, and it’s eaten into the middle and upper middle class families.

Trump will probably not be president. But this problem will remain if Hillary Clinton doesn’t push aside the normal fight among progressive identity groups and take on the white working class and poor as the most serious part of her agenda. The Obama administration this week announced $17 million in funding to fight the heroin epidemic – it’s not nearly enough. It wouldn’t be nearly enough in Ohio. Promising more would outrage other groups that make up the Democratic voting base (poor and working class whites tend to vote Republican), who use academic language and old arguments about white privilege, which automatically fall apart when discussing the heroin epidemic. When a study was released early this year saying the mortality rate is only rising worldwide among one group of people – working class and poor American whites – progressive journalists were standing in line to either discount the findings as a whole or to twist them to fit their own gender or race politics, the same aggrandizement contest that has become a breeding ground on Twitter, and was the focus of garbage sites such as Gawker.

Hillary Clinton has long needed her Sister Souljah moment. To explain, Sister Souljah was a female rapper in the early 90s. She appeared at an MTV event with then candidate Bill Clinton, who loudly denounced her lyrics as violent against police and something he didn’t support. Hillary needs to make an honest reach to the rural white and working class, and do so in a loud fashion. Until this bloc is brought back into play for both parties, the vast disintegration of the political center will never get fixed. The GOP will continue to be at the beck and call of the Breitbart faction and the danger that runs from extremism continues.

Trump is probably losing the election – I say probably, because nothing is a certainty. But his candidacy hasn’t caused divisions and rank and furor in the country – it has revealed issues that have been long standing to those outside the corridor. Until the Democrats put aside the pecking order of their coalition, and start to work to truly unify the country, these problems will only get worse, and extremist fringes will continue to have a large voice.

The Democratic convention was a great start, with Ronald Reagan invoked (given the changes in the GOP, I’m sure the former Democrat and President would not have minded), and there are Republicans who would be more comfortable working with Democrats from the center than their own party on he right (John Kasich is the example). But invoking it, preaching optimism and unity, and focusing the country as one is one thing on the stump, and another thing in government.

This will be Hillary Clinton’s toughest challenge if she’s president.